The hottest market supply and demand imbalance PTA

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The weak correction of PTA futures price due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market

since PTA hit a high of 8766 yuan in early April, under the pressure of many bad news, PTA has gone out of a sharp decline. In just 23 trading days, the main contract of PTA fell from 8766 yuan to 7990 yuan, and the price of PTA per ton fell by 776 yuan, down as much as 8.85%. The market was panic. Recently, the first line of 8000 yuan has been temporarily supported, and there are signs of rebound. However, through the analysis of its fundamentals, we found that several main factors supporting the upward movement of PTA in the early stage have changed. Under the pressure of these factors, PTA may come out of a long-term decline

the chart shows the trend of crude oil and PTA. (picture source: Ruida futures)

after the May Day holiday, under the impact of the Greek debt crisis, in just four trading days, international crude oil fell by $12 a barrel, down 13.39%. Recently, driven by the temporary relief of the debt crisis, there has been a slight rebound. However, the rising crude oil inventory will still form a certain gap for the rebound of oil prices, such as glass wool materials. We believe that $83.50 - $84 will exert strong pressure on oil prices, and it is expected that crude oil will fluctuate in the range of $78 - $84/barrel in the short term. Crude oil is not strong enough to rise, and its cost support effect on PTA will also be greatly weakened

affected by the weak pullback of crude oil, the upstream raw materials of PTA also fell across the board, and the prices of Asian naphtha, mixed xylene and p-xylene all showed a weak pullback pattern. The price of naphtha in Asia fell from US $794 to US $733, down 7.68%. Mixed xylene also fell by US $22/ton, down 2.41%, while p-xylene fell by US $25, down 2.37%. The correction of high crude oil has greatly weakened the cost support role of PTA industrial chain. We believe that naphtha, MX and PX will maintain a weak consolidation pattern until the global economy has not improved significantly in the past two years

the chart shows the trend of PTA upstream raw materials. (picture source: Ruida futures)

since entering 2010, the profit space of PTA manufacturers has been increasing, and its profit has increased from 407 yuan/ton in January 2010 to 1768 yuan/ton. After falling for days, the current use of pressure testing machine 1 must pay attention to cleaning, and the profit is still 1083 yuan. The huge profit space also puts great pressure on the price of PTA

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