The downward risk of copper price has not been eliminated due to the short market sentiment.
recently, the sharp decline of crude oil and the continuous decline of U.S. stocks have dragged down the trend of the commodity market. The uncertainty of the outcome of the Sino US trade negotiations has also depressed investor confidence, and the copper price is under pressure to fall around 50000 yuan/ton. Although the market's expectations of domestic policies have been raised, and the superimposed copper inventory remains low, the global macroeconomic situation is still uncertain, and the downward risk of copper prices has not been removed
the U.S. economic growth may slow down
in the United States, the short-term economy remains stable, and the probability of the growth rate falling back in the later period increases. The US Department of Commerce recently announced that the annualized real GDP in the third quarter increased by 3.5% quarter on quarter from the initial value, higher than the expected 3.3%. Although the employment data in October remained strong, the non farm payrolls released by the U.S. labor office increased by 250000 in October, far higher than the expected 200000. In October, the average hourly salary of employees in the private sector increased by 3.1% year-on-year, the growth rate was the first time to stand at 3% since 2009, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. This data remained at the lowest level in 48 years, but industrial activities showed signs of slowing down. In October, the ISM manufacturing index of the United States was 5, and servo electromechanical devices were installed on the control valves of the hydraulic system at 7.7, which was again lower than the market expectation of 59. In addition, the results of the U.S. mid-term election have hidden dangers for the economy. The results show that although the Republican Party has retained the majority of seats with fixed transportation vehicles in the Senate, the Democratic Party has won control of the house of Representatives. With the Democratic Party regaining control of the house of Representatives, it will probably limit Trump's continued infrastructure stimulus and a new round of tax cuts. In the absence of policy stimulus, Shanying paper With Huatai shares and Vida international becoming new members of "10billion" enterprises, the U.S. economic growth will slow down
recently, the sharp decline in crude oil will lead to the weakening of U.S. inflation expectations. Although the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at the November meeting, and the market generally expects that the next interest rate hike will be carried out in December, the sharp decline in U.S. stocks caused by the recent rise in U.S. Treasury bond interest rates has shown the consequences of tightening market liquidity. In addition, the sharp decline in crude oil will weaken U.S. inflation expectations. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the global economy will be greatly impacted, This led to a sharp adjustment of commodities
there is still uncertainty in the macro.
the PMI of China's manufacturing industry in October announced in the early stage was 50.2%, down 0.6% from September. At the same time, the data hit a new low since March this year. The PMI of Caixin manufacturing industry in October was 50.1%. Although it rebounded from 50% in September, it is still on the edge of the boom and bust line. On the whole, the weakness of the manufacturing index reflects the current slowdown in the business activities of domestic industrial enterprises
at present, the market focus is mainly on the progress of negotiations between the United States and China on trade issues at the G20 summit at the end of this month. The market generally expects that the result is not as good as expected. At present, the market has accepted that Sino US trade disputes can not be resolved through simple trade negotiations as before. Its deep-seated non economic factors indicate that the game between China and the United States will show a different long-term and complexity, which undoubtedly has a great negative impact on the terminal demand of the bulk commodity market. At least for now, before the Sino US trade agreement is finalized, there are still many uncertainties at the macro level, and the author temporarily maintains a certain cautious attitude towards copper prices
cftc short positions rose slightly
the data showed that as of November 23, LME copper inventory decreased by 21475 tons to 139550 tons compared with the same period last week, and domestic copper inventory decreased by 1581 tons to 133163 tons. In terms of spot, LME copper maintained a rising trend. As of November 23, LME spot copper to three-month copper premium 29 This division is based on the use of steel hammers of $5/ton, an increase of $11/ton over the same period in the previous week
as of November 13, comex1 copper non-commercial position data showed that there were 73469 non-commercial long positions, an increase of 22 over the previous week, 70054 non-commercial short positions, an increase of 2993 over the previous week, and a decrease of 2971 net long positions. From the data of the top 8 long and short net positions, as of November 13, the top 8 long net positions accounted for 17.2%, unchanged from the previous week; The top 8 short positions accounted for 28.8%, an increase of 0.1% over the previous week. Overall, the net short position rose slightly, reflecting that the market still continued to be short
to sum up, in the short term, the global macro-economy is still facing uncertainty, and the commodity market sentiment is short, which is a drag on the copper futures price. In addition, the global macro situation is uncertain or will continue to suppress the copper price. Industrial customers can consider short selling at high prices to lock in sales profits
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