The hottest market sentiment did not improve, and

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Market sentiment has not improved, and the oscillation range of Shanghai aluminum hovered

on April 24, the market rumored that Russian Aluminum tycoons might give up their controlling stake in Rusal, and the United States would lift sanctions on Rusal. Lun aluminum fell sharply, and then stabilized at the integer price of $2200/ton and gradually recovered. Looking forward to the future, the internal and external market continued to decline, which was beneficial to the aluminum price, the domestic electrolytic aluminum cost gradually increased, and the export was good, which was supported by Shanghai aluminum. However, at present, the global macro-economy is unstable, and the characteristics such as strong anti-interference ability of market conditions have been suppressed. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai aluminum will be maintained in the range of 14500-15500 yuan/ton in the short term

domestic and foreign inventories have decreased continuously

at home, downstream consumption has warmed up and inventories have declined. As of May 4, the aluminum inventory in the previous period was 986205 tons, falling for two consecutive weeks, with a decline of 7002 tons. As of May 10, the spot inventory was 2.178 million tons, falling for three consecutive weeks by 80000 tons. In terms of external market, as of May 9, LME aluminum inventory was tons, a decrease of 136050 compared with the fermentation of the Russian Aluminum event on April 19, and the inventory decreased significantly. Domestic and foreign inventories continued to decline, which was good for aluminum prices

the cost side may be supported

a series of recent events at home and abroad have led to the rise in the price of raw materials related to electrolytic aluminum. First of all, the stricter domestic environmental protection has led to the limited supply of major bauxite producing areas and the rise in bauxite prices. According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals, Shanxi is carrying out a large-scale investigation and rectification against illegal mining. Shanxi Province is a major bauxite production province in the north. Because its structure cannot resonate with itself for a long time, environmental protection inspection will lead to a shortage of local bauxite supply. As of May 9, the price of Shanxi high-grade bauxite was 450 yuan/ton, and the price level has returned to the high level in January last year when loading the samples of the hydraulic universal testing machine. In the short term, in Europe, the environmental protection inspection continues, and the bauxite price may be difficult to fall. In addition, since alunorte, an overseas alumina producer, was ordered by the Brazilian government to rectify due to environmental pollution incidents, the Russian Aluminum incident contributed to the flames, making alumina prices continue to strengthen from mid April. As of May 9, the national average price of alumina in Shanghai Nonferrous Metals statistics was 3118 yuan/ton, up about 400 yuan/ton from the beginning of April

it is expected that alunorte will be difficult to resume production in the short term, and the overseas alumina supply is still tight. At present, the price of overseas alumina is higher than that of domestic alumina, which is conducive to alumina export. Domestic enterprises have carried out export business. It is expected that overseas alumina prices will run at a high level in the short term, and domestic alumina may follow the price trend of overseas alumina

the rising price of alumina has raised the production cost of electrolytic aluminum. It is estimated that the current production cost of electrolytic aluminum is 14610.21 yuan/ton, an increase of about 600 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of April. The rise of production costs will form a certain support for aluminum prices

exports showed a positive trend

customs data showed that China's unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports in April were 451000 tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, and a decrease of 1000 tons month on month compared with March. In the first April of 2018, China exported 1.72 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, an increase of 13.2% year-on-year. Aluminum exports continued to improve this year, mainly because the Shanghai Lun ratio was low, which was conducive to the export of Chinese enterprises. As of May 9, the Shanghai Lun ratio was 6.21, still at a low level. It is worth noting that China's aluminum ingot export has increased significantly this year. From January to March, the cumulative export volume of China's aluminum ingots was 18518 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2628.58%, mainly due to the shortage of overseas aluminum ingots, and overseas enterprises consider importing aluminum ingots from China. At present, the low ratio of Shanghai to London is still conducive to the export of China's aluminum related enterprises, which will alleviate the pressure brought by the high domestic inventory to a certain extent

the peripheral environment is still unstable

recently, the global macro-economic instability has put pressure on bulk commodities. After imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum exported by China and other countries, the US government sent troops to Syria and recently announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, which hit market sentiment. In addition, the U.S. economy continues to improve, and the Federal Reserve has a high probability of raising interest rates, making the dollar index continue to rise. At present, it has risen to around 93, which also adds some resistance to the rise of lunaluminum

to sum up, although the production cost of electrolytic aluminum in China is gradually rising, and exports are improving, which supports the aluminum price, the global macroeconomic atmosphere is unstable, putting pressure on bulk commodities. It is expected that the short-term aluminum price will show an oscillating operation trend, with the operation range of 14300-14800 yuan/ton

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